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Ten years following the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that split the country and triggered disorder, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

Policymakers and electorate drifted into Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is ready.

That is the message from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Structures Unprepared

The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and seismic public vote.

"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our islands remains highly fragile."

New Title Aims to Encourage Dialogue

The duo have examined the political, economic and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a book, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to encourage dialogue on the topic with a tour of public talks that will lead them to Westminster early next month.

"What concerns everyone, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.

"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose implications have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely polarised community where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won are uncertain exactly what it is that they have won."

Constitutional Provision

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.

Nationalist parties and other nationalists say this point is approaching, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there could be a referendum.

Absence of Substantive Discussion

Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has hidden the absence of informed dialogue, said McBride.

"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has occurred in universities but hardly any government figures or campaigners want to engage even with the essentials. To illustrate, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Federal?"

Volume's Strategy

In the book, none of the commentators endorses unification or the status quo. They composes two essays that seek neutrality in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling economic and societal figures, previous instances and structural examples.

Debates range over identity markers, taxes, medical care, retirement funds, public liabilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The goal is to enlighten and provoke discussion.

"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Debate implies an recognition of the idea that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."

Dual Referendums

A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate say they prefer unity but refuse paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.

"Authorities in Dublin should work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.

Probability of Referendum

The journalist thinks a national vote in his generation is likely and that it might occur abruptly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a poor or a negligent secretary of state who declares: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"

Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, valid points, he commented. "Somebody will succeed here and the other side will in the end be defeated but both parties has has something to learn from the alternative viewpoints."

Appeal for Broader Discussion

Westminster should join the debate, urged O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish matter."